Wednesday, April 25, 2012

rich jerks not saving enough to retire. what's the prob?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-retirement-savings-system-needs-multipronged-boost-report/article2412789/ The report adds to previous research suggesting that Canadians are overly confident about their retirement savings, even though a large percentage of Canadians face a big drop in income once they retire. The stock market has offered limited returns since its peak 12 years ago, hurting the returns of both pension funds and individuals’ savings, the report notes. “However, close to a quarter of households are not on track to generate a retirement income sufficient to maintain their standard of living when they move out of the work force,” the report says. “The share of households that are not on track varies from as little as 4 per cent for the lower income and higher-age cohort to as much as 41 per cent for the higher income and higher-age cohort,” it says. ---------------- D - I don't see the problem. The older Boomers, the ones that had the most benefits from their demographic position, are living high on the hog and not saving. SO WHAT!!! Stop trying to help THEM. They're actually getting what they deserve - FINALLY! Sheesh.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Quebec standoff. Gov't blinks first?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-education-minister-calls-for-truce-with-student-strikers/article2411323/ The Quebec government is showing signs of buckling under the pressure of a 10-week student strike over a planned tuition-fee hike. After several weeks of balking at holding a full meeting with the students, Education Minister Line Beauchamps agreed to meet them, though not before they agreed to call a 48-hour truce to the social unrest that has recently sparked violent clashes with police. ---------------- D - that's not what the Quebec gov't said before. At least, nothing about a 2 day peace being the only condition. ---------------- http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-premier-jokes-with-business-leaders-as-police-beat-back-protesters/article2409664/ Quebec Premier jokes with business leaders as police beat back protesters. Hundreds of protesters clashed with police in central Montreal on Friday in a sign of growing tension and violence over Quebec’s decision to hike student tuition fees. Police wielded batons and tear gas against demonstrators who massed around Montreal’s convention centre, where Premier Jean Charest was to give a speech to promote his northern-development plan. The confrontation signals a marked deterioration in a 10-week-old student movement that began as a peaceful protest against the Charest government’s decision to increase tuition fees by $325 a year for five years. When he did speak to business leaders and elected officials, the Premier joked about the protests outside, saying that his northern-development job fair was so popular, “people were running from all over the place to get in.” He also quipped that employers could offer the protesters jobs “as far North as possible.” -------------------- http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/protesters-clash-with-police-as-quebec-students-grievances-grow/article2409122/ A spring of discontent in Quebec characterized by scenes of red-clad student protesters erupted into something darker Friday. Demonstrators hurled projectiles ranging from rocks to flower pots in downtown Montreal, disrupting political events indoors and committing vandalism outdoors. Riot police fought back by swinging batons and firing rubber bullets and tear-gas canisters into the crowd. A few participants stressed one message: This isn’t just about university fees anymore. Students and environmentalists joined forces against a conference on Mr. Charest’s cherished Plan Nord. An investigative show on the French-language CBC showed a provincial Liberal organizer — and onetime prominent organizer for the Harper Tories — discussing the Plan Nord while being surreptitiously videotaped. That organizer, Pierre Coulombe, was videotaped suggesting to reporters, who pretended to be potential clients, that they could have access to Plan Nord decision-makers for a fee. ------------- D - G&M is frustrating. Stellar news coverage. Slick-looking web interface. And... POS search engine. There is no way to narrow down search results. This combo makes G&M the 'dumb blonde' of the online news world. Sad. With a decent search engine, it'd be KING. D- about HALF the Quebec student signed some pact decrying the use of violence in protest. By extension, HALF did not. D - I've made my case for low, even token, university tuitions before. (See blog on accessibility, and 1 before.) The political right has tried to reframe the Quebec tuition protests as: 1) an unjustified sense of untitlement 2) being behind the times, and out of touch with contemporary fiscal reality 3) diminishing the autonomy of various universities, who become solely reliant on direct gov't funding, 4) starving the Quebec universities of funding, leading to inferior education. As my recent blogs attest, the political right is pretty much clearly and demonstrably WRONG on every count! Aside- I tried to send one blog link to the Quebec federation of student, but the e-mail did not reach the other end. Interesting.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

real estate long term trends





http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/boomers-generation-had-everything-it-wanted-and-it-still-does/article2387987/

Please don’t resent me because I’m a boomer – although I wouldn’t blame you if you do. The government has made it very clear that the concept of shared sacrifice does not apply to my generation. Unlike people under 54, we boomers will get every penny of the Old Age Security benefits we’ve been promised, and probably all the health care, too. Think of how we’d squawk if they tried to lay a glove on us. We’re entitled to our entitlements!

Real estate was very good to us. In 1980, I borrowed some money from my mom and paid $95,000 for a decrepit house in Toronto’s up-and-coming Beach. Mortgage rates zoomed to 17 per cent. That was scary. But I got raises every year, and a combination of inflation and soaring house prices did the rest. Between the mid-1980s and 2008, we boomers enjoyed the most prolonged period of prosperity in modern times. By 2010, modest investments in Toronto real estate had made many paper millionaires.

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http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=21

Government transfers are more important for individuals and economic families with low earnings, including retired seniors. In 2007, government transfers accounted for, on average, 45.7% of total income for economic families in the bottom 20% income group and 22.7% for those in the next 20% income group. For economic families in the middle 20% income group, 12.9% of their total income came from government transfers, while for the highest and second highest groups, government transfers represented 2.6% and 6.9% of total income respecfully[1].

Government transfers also accounted for a larger share of total income for unattached individuals than for economic families.

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D - so family income has stagnated. At the same time, real estate is much more expensive today to purchase, whereas houses have become an investment source for Boomers.

One can shrug and say well that is just private economic forces.
But we're dealing with public social spending right now.
And it can be summed up with Boomers get it and XYZers don't - or won't.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Quebec tuition revisited. ACCESSIBILITY

D - that's the term everybody on both sides of the Quebec tuition issue bandy about.

Here's the other side.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/04/13/brendan-steven-quebec-students-must-pay-their-share/

(D -about Brendan. Brendan Steven is a third year political science & Canadian studies student at McGill University. He is a co-founder of McGill’s Moderate Political Action Committee (ModPAC), an organization mobilizing students opposed to the strike.)

The change will take Quebec from having the lowest tuition rate in the country to … still having the lowest tuition rate in the country.

Student activists have orchestrated a series of strike actions in opposition to the tuition increase. The name of the game has been hyperbole: accusations that Charest seeks to implement “American-style” privatized education, and claims that accessibility for low-income students will be ravaged by the changes.

Quebec’s artificially low tuition rate is a failed policy. It has done nothing to increase accessibility, the raison d’ĂȘtre of rock-bottom tuition, and has only left Quebec’s universities poorer than their national counterparts.

(D - I'm not sure what he means by "artificial" there - maybe below the other provinces?)

There is simply no observed correlation in Canada between lower tuition fees and higher rates of university participation. A study by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy found that the three provinces with the lowest tuition in the country (Quebec, Manitoba and Newfoundland) all suffered from the largest gaps of participation between low-income and high-income students. Nova Scotia, with the highest tuition rate in the country, also had the highest rate of university participation.

(D - this term proves to be a Red Herring - see my retort.)

This is not to say that higher tuition leads to higher accessibility. Certainly, the Frontier Centre’s researchers note that tuition can be so high it becomes a genuine barrier to access. Canada, however, is nowhere near that point, and Quebec certainly will be nowhere near it once these tuition increases are implemented.

(D - I show there is a chilling effect at work on student from poor families already, at the tuition rates of other provinces in Canada.)

---------

D - we don't want universities subject to to the funding whims of gov't, apparently.

D - coupla things. First of all, the present highest tuitions in Canada are Ontario, New Brunswich and then Nova Scotia, in that order.

D - but let's focus on his article's main argument - low tuition does not impede poor student participation.

What is "participation"? Well, in the most simplistic analysis, it is measured based on university enrollment and attendance, period. There are some serious problems with this.

At the grad level, the financial situation of the student continues to have an impact on accessibility.

http://careerchem.com/CAREER-INFO-ACADEMIC/Frank-Elgar.pdf

(D - ABM stands for All But Dissertation.)

Even the demographic profile of ABD students has changed dramatically in
recent years. As Smith (2000) describes, most ABDs are in their mid-30s or early-40s, most are
married or in a relationship with at least one child, 70% are employed in areas unrelated to their
discipline, and most live too far away from campus to meet regularly with professors or to utilise
campus services. They are burdened with multiple commitments, live a non-commutable distance
from campus, and poor. As Ziolkowski (1990) notes, in light of the social and economic plight of
ABD students
, it should not be surprising that most report feeling isolated and “left behind.”

D - reaching a PhD degree pays dividends. Worth a million bucks!

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CHEQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.yorku.ca%2Foira%2Freports%2FGreenPaper%2F18%2520-%2520Trends%2520in%2520Higher%2520Education%2520-%2520Enrolment%2520-%2520AUCC.pdf&ei=HWOIT6HNGcT0gge-m4XcCQ&usg=AFQjCNHnPtDXfdzoGpZ_EQ65PNuP5tE1bA&sig2=SieLqT-DDnQnLeRaX0nUwQ

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/campus-reports/a-university-education-in-canada-is-a-bargain/article2211942/print/

Canada’s generous financial aid programs, such as the Canada Grant Program and student loans, also make education here a steal. “We have to remember that although we charge everyone tuition up front, a lot of that is given back right away in tax rebates,” says Usher, noting that tax credits range from 20% to 30% of tuition depending on the province.

D - spoken like a true middle class member. Tax credits are of no use for the truly poor below the first tax bracket.

D- between first year and graduation, 1 in 7 drop out. WHY?

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=4af0ba5c-1d32-4897-8ae3-cf8937cf001e

OTTAWA - One is seven young Canadians who pursue higher education drop out before they graduate, with most making the call by the time they've finished their first year, says a Statistics Canada study.

The federal agency reported Tuesday that 15 per cent of students who enrol in post-secondary education quit for a variety of reasons...

The study concluded that students who quit were heading in that direction from their first year.

In their first year post-secondary experience, leavers were already faltering in terms of meeting deadlines, academic performance and study behaviour, said Statistics Canada.

Danielle Shaienks, one of the study's authors, said that the non-completion rate is roughly the same as it was in 2002...

(D - oh so, the dropouts lacked worth ethic? Maybe - or maybe they were juggling a job on the side unsuccessfully, recognizing the risk of graduating with a big student loan.

http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2009/06/08/work

Consistent with the conventional wisdom, said Gary R. Pike, lead author of the study, working more than 20 hours a week has a negative impact on students' grades, whether the the employment is on campus or off. Students who work 20 hours or less, on campus and off, report roughly similar grades as do students who do not work at all.

D - let's look at those tuition level that Steven deems acceptable and benign...

http://www.cfs-fcee.ca/studentdebt/index.html

Impact of Tuition Fees and Student Debt
Among those who have never participated in post-secondary education, “financial issues” have been found by researchers to be the most commonly cited barrier. As demonstrated below, financial struggles lead to a diverse array of consequences.

Debt Aversion
Debt aversion is the personal calculation that the sacrifice of debt accumulation and repayment are not worth the return from post-secondary education. When examining the details of financial barriers to participation in Canada, Malatest and Associates found that debt aversion was strong among nonattendees, cited by one in four who said that financial issues were preventing their enrolment/

http://www.cfs-fcee.ca/studentdebt/index.html

Persistence and Mental Health
Apprehension about accumulating debt can also have a profound impact on the likelihood of completion. As many students work part- or full-time to reduce their borrowing, academic commitments can become more difficult to fulfil. Other students simply leave before completion at the first offer of decent employment as a way to stop accumulating debt.

Surveys of students in programs with deregulated tuition fees have demonstrated that student debt changes the career path of young graduates. Studies of medical students9 and law students10 found that students expect to seek higher paying jobs in fields or regions that are not necessarily their first choice. Student debt appears to be driving committed young doctors away from family practice and young lawyers away from the public service and/or pro bono work. These distorted career choices have an impact not only on individual professionals but also on access to health care and legal services for all Canadians.

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D - this first round of Quebec tuition hikes is just the tip of the iceberg. As part an ongoing trend, here is the result:

http://www.cba.org/cba/national/Students/Student01.aspx

Out of sight

In the past decade, reports Statistics Canada, undergraduate tuition fees have risen an astonishing 126.2%, more than six times the 20.6% increase in inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index.

Law, dentistry, and medicine continue to be the most expensive programs. In some provinces, tuition fees at professional schools have doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled in recent years. And the numbers keep rising.

This fall, first-year law students across Canada will pay tuition fees of anywhere from a low of $1,668 (for Quebec residents who go to one of the province's five law schools) to a high of $12,000 at the University of Toronto. Generally, fees are highest in Ontario and Nova Scotia, and lowest in Quebec and British Columbia.

Add to that the costs of books, ancillary fees, food and housing, and single students can expect to pay anywhere from $10,000 to more than $25,000 a year to study for a law degree. When you factor in the expenses of Bar Admission Courses, plus debts from previous degrees, it's no surprise that some law graduates can expect to enter today's profession with staggering debt loads approaching $100,000.

High tuition fees, says Dr. William Easton, create barriers to education, and thus threaten the supply of professionals required to serve the needs of the Canadian public.

Easton is chair of the National Professional Associations Coalition on Tuition (NPACT), an affiliation of representatives from numerous professional associations — including the CBA — concerned about tuition fee increases.

Opponents of fee hikes worry that the increased costs will deter people, especially those who come from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, from even considering the law as a career possibility. Students from rural areas, recent immigrants, those without savings or credit histories, and students with children are among those most vulnerable to the effects of high fees.

"The costs are so onerous that law school doesn't become part of someone's realm of possibility," says Ummni Kahn, a recent Osgoode Hall graduate who worked at Parkdale Community Legal Services as part of the school's intensive program in poverty law. She's now articling with the Ontario Human Rights Commission. "When I talked to clients at Parkdale about going into law, they'd say, no, that's out of my league."

"Sticker shock" and debt aversion are the two main barriers that keep potential law students out of higher-priced institutions...

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D - in conclusion, high tuition - at a level already found in much of the rest of Canada:
1) forces students to take on work for money that hurts marks,
2) encourages poor students to drop out before completing degrees,
3) steers poor students away from lucrative professional degrees.

Contrast this with Brendan Steven's claim that tuition rates on par other provinces such as Ontario don't impact on poor student university 'participation rates'.
You decide.

(Extrapolate present tuition trends to see what awaits GenZ - those still in lower levels of school. Grim stuff. Budget pressure from retiring Boomers will only amplify existing trends.)

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Millenials can't save for retirement with debts



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/retirement-rrsps/young-people-worried-about-retirement-dont-get-mad-get-saving/article2396282/

“I don’t have a pension plan,” Mr. Lem says. “And I would love to put $100 a month into an account that I won’t touch until I am 60, but that $100 is paying off the interest rates on four credit cards and my student loan.”

Young Canadians, a generation saddled with record high student debt and facing an expensive housing market, tight job prospects and stalled earnings, are still absorbing news that they might need to work two years longer than their parents.

------

D: new OAS.

------

The latest Conservative federal budget calls for the eligibility age of OAS and the closely tied Guaranteed Income Supplement to rise from 65 to 67, over a span of six years starting in April, 2023.

What that means is that if you are 54 or younger and decide to retire at 65, you’ll be getting $13,000 less. Not everyone qualifies for the OAS benefit: If you earn more than $69,562, you must repay some of it. If you make more than $112,772, the full amount is clawed back.

(D - but don't count on OAS. At all)

Caring for Clients financial planner Rona Birenbaum has stopped incorporating OAS into the retirement projections of anyone under the age of 40 – in part because she believes it could be clawed back further.

“As a conservative approach, we are now taking it out entirely,” Ms. Birenbaum says.

The maximum amount Canadians can receive in OAS is $540.12 a month, which works out to more than $6,000 a year. “That can make a big difference in a retired person’s life. So taking this out of retirement projections, it is no joke,” she says.

------------

D - so the advice is 'save more'. Well, how to do that with
1) student loan
2) house mortgage
3) having a child that will soon cost $1/4M by adulthood,
4) (and that is not counting a matching amount for a degree by then!)

D - easy say. Also completely USELESS advice.

Monday, April 9, 2012

USA: seniors still owe student loans!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/senior-citizens-continue-to-bear-burden-of-student-loans/2012/04/01/gIQAs47lpS_story.html?wprss

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans 60 and older still owe about $36 billion in student loans, providing a rare window into the dynamics of student debt. More than 10 percent of those loans are delinquent. As a result, consumer advocates say, it is not uncommon for Social Security checks to be garnished or for debt collectors to harass borrowers in their 80s over student loans that are decades old.

(D - original source: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/03/grading-student-loans.html )

The long-touted benefits of a college degree are being diluted by rising tuition rates and the longevity of debt.

Some of these older Americans are still grappling with their first wave of student loans, while others took on new debt when they returned to school later in life in hopes of becoming more competitive in the labor force. Many have co-signed for loans with their children or grandchildren to help them afford ballooning tuition...

And unlike other debts, student loans cannot be shed in bankruptcy. As a result, some older Americans have found that a college degree led not to a prosperous career but instead to a lifetime under the shadow of debt.

Barnett filed for bankruptcy in 2005, but she couldn’t get out from under her student loan debt. She said a collection agency began garnishing the wages from her full-time job as a customer service representative a year ago, and now money is so tight that she must choose between buying gas and buying food.

---------------

D - OMG, they can garnish senior gov't benefits? Really?
And NEVER kick a student loan.

It is easy to scoff and say, "well, that is just those Americans", but we got pretty close here a few years back. And may very well end up there again.

Right now, the Canadian minimum time out of school to go backrupt on a student loan is SEVEN years. But it was TEN. That scared the hell out of me the time. In fact, I got in trouble with family over it. My 1 grandma was born in Lithuania, then settled here after WWII. This means, under the immigration rules of Lithuania, as blood descendents, my siblings and cousins could become Lithuanians. I did not know what the future held. The trend in student loans suggested that a 20, 25 or even "life sentence" for student loans could easily happen. I was eyeing the possibility of retiring still owing a student debt - particularly if I tried to take any more school! I did not want to bother grandma (Oma) about the details we would need to qualify for citizenship, but it made sense at the time.

And here's the kicker- it may yet make sense. There is no reason that the government, faced with spiralling Boomer retirement pension and medical costs cannot try the same stunt again.
SEVEN years can become ten again, then 14, then 25 and finally LIFE.
Notice the similarity to criminal law sentencing here. Put another way, a student loan that cannot be bankrupted upon (particularly if old age benefits can be garnished) is tantamount to a life (and death) penalty... all for the temerity of going to school.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

30 somethings and their 'jesus year'

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/the-rise-of-the-jesus-year/article2394608/

So, what exactly is a Jesus Year? The term cropped up periodically on early blogs and Myspace pages, but only now appears to be gaining traction among those trying to make the increasingly difficult transition from adolescence to adulthood.

This is the definition found in the Urban Dictionary: “Time to get moving and get things done (maybe).”

Brooklyn-based artist Wayne Adams is more forthcoming. “Thirty-three is largely considered the age Jesus Christ was when His life and ministry were abruptly ended in His crucifixion,” he explains on the blog Curator, adding that, as he approached his own Jesus Year, “in the back of my mind, it seemed like there was a sort of historical/biblical precedent for being at the height of one's career, or at least doing something incredibly important at that age.”...

This interpretation doesn't, however, take into account the frustrations faced by today's thirtysomethings. “The basic milestones that young people of previous generations could expect to complete by the age of 30 – graduating school, leaving home, becoming financial independent and forming their own families – aren't necessarily occurring in that standard fashion,” says Barbara Mitchell, who teaches sociology at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver.

“It's unprecedented from a historical perspective. On the one hand, they have all these opportunities and options. On the other hand, I can imagine they'd start to feel somewhat anxious about trying to transition into complete adulthood in an economy that doesn't allow them to do that.”
They are trying to anchor themselves in something bigger than themselves.”
So, the Jesus Year has become a meme for dealing with, not a mid-life crisis but rather a stalled-life crisis.

“By 35, especially for women, you have to be married with babies; otherwise you kind of missed your time.”
She interpreted the Jesus Year as an opportunity for reinvention, a kind of bonus year off from the pressures of adulthood, and embarked upon a year of self-improvement and magical thinking.

– the most profound reality of this age today is that it's the last gasp before you leave the valuable under-35 demographic. You are becoming less valuable to the marketing machine that had praised you since your teens. All the things you bought don't love you back. The rub, of course, is where do you turn instead?

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D - check out the article for more. Lots of bon mots there.

D - now that I think about that, I think I went through that in my late 30s. I thought at the time that must be my mid-life crisis. But it wasn't.

Midlife crisis is a term coined in 1965 by Elliott Jaques stating a time where adults come to realize their own mortality and how much time is left in their life. [1] A midlife crisis is experienced by many people during the midlife transition when they realize that life may be more than halfway over. Sometimes, a crisis can be triggered by transitions experienced in these years, such as andropause or menopause, the death of parents or other causes of grief, unemployment or underemployment, realizing that a job or career is hated but not knowing how else to earn an equivalent living, or children leaving home. People may reassess their achievements in terms of their dreams. The result may be a desire to make significant changes in core aspects of day-to-day life or situation, such as in career, work-life balance, marriage, romantic relationships, large expenditures, or physical appearance. (Wiki)

D - I don't qualify for a midlife crisis. There is no house, no wife, no kids, hell, not even a career or vocation. Just entry-level, pays-the-rent work.
I thought to myself, "at 40 I'll be in this stupid factory doing trained monkey work still, after 5 years here!" Career-wise, trying to reinvent myself failed. I'm still doing trained monkey entry level work. I have become more contemplative, I suppose.
Plus, I am not nearly done and am slowly pursuing some game-changing strategies still.

D - in conclusion, this new "Jesus Year" can only take place in the absence of the standard signposts of success necessary to reach a midlife crisis!