Monday, January 30, 2012

Cdn. population to 2060, light at end



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/data-room/population-of-canada-projected-to-2060/article2319385/?from=2319413

D - well, 2030 is the hardest year. The most Boomers retired there will ever be. By 2060, the load lessens. The Boomers die off, and Gen Y and Z have way less Gen Xers to carry.
So the trick is to build up a buffer for 2030 so the system does not collapse.

D - OK, I'm annoyed with EVERY party in the CPP/ OAS debate.
They're all operating on clearly flawed assumptions.

The Conservatives pretend CPP is fully funded - which it has NOT been, not by FAR, since 2009. The stock market is not gonna every fully resume its former levels as if this whole decade never happened.

The Liberals are acting as if OAS is really an anti-poverty program, which it only incidentally is. Primarily, it is the result of a middle class 'feeding trough' mentality for pork-barrel politics as usual.

The NDP think we can double pension payout AND increase coverage. Merry X-mas, Boomers!

This makes all the parties, all of them, traitors to the younger generations. Not ONE of them has anything but Boomer vested interests in mind.
Keep in mind the result of Mulroney's attempt to change OAS. The senior lobby shouted him down, and he recanted.
The Boomers:
1) are affluent,
2) are organized,
3) are numerous.
This is a winning combo!

Gen XY(Z - too young to vote yet) would need to offset this with superiority in at least 1 and preferably 2 of the former categories.
Is it hopeless? Not at all. Only about 1% of Boomers and/or seniors belong to the Zoomer CARP organization. Of course, Boomer diffuse influence pervades politics in general, but it is HERE that we see a chink in their armour, and potentially light at the end of the tunnel.

If even 10% of GenXY (and Z, when they can - let them join as honorary young members for now until they can vote - get them used to political awareness and advocacy) joined an ASSP (Advocating Sustainable Social Programs) young-to-mid adult themed generational lobby group, and payed the same piddly membership fees as Zoomers, then WE would have lobby superiority.

For that matter, honorary Boomer members. But they'll NEVER seize the helm.

---------------

http://www.zoomermag.com/

Zoomer Magazine | Canada's Boomer Lifestyle Magazine
www.zoomermag.com/
Not helpful? You can block www.zoomermag.com results when you're signed in to search. Block all www.zoomermag.com results
39 minutes ago – Read ZoomerMag: lifestyle magazine for 45plus Canadian Zoomers -boomers with zip- for engaging articles from health to finance, politics to ...

D - 45 plus ?! When did THAT happen? Wow - making sure they scoop even very young Boomers- and possibly even old Xers! Don't take the bait. Hold the line. Identify as not-Boomer, not a me-too attempt to treat your younger companions the way the Boomers have treated Gen X.

Step 2. Choose your best offer:
ZOOMER Magazine
1 year Zoomer only - $19.95 ($79.95 for US/International subscriptions)
ZOOMER Magazine AND CARP membership
1 year: $ 34.95 ($94.95 for US/International subscriptions)
CARP membership
1 year membership only - $20.00 ($25 for US/International subscriptions)
ZOOMER Magazine
3 year Zoomer only - $49.95 ($229.95 for US/International subscriptions)
ZOOMER Magazine AND CARP membership
3 years: $84.95 ($274.95 for US/International subscriptions)
CARP membership
3 year membership only - $49.95 ($64.95 for US/International subscriptions)

--------------------------

D - so a basic CARP membership runs less than $20/year, somewhat more with the magazine tossed in. OK, let's go all hi-tek.
Let's propose a virtual FREE gen-XYZ magazine. No paper copy. Now let's say $20/year for membership - and $10 for the young wing.
In one fell swoop, we've deprived the Boomers and their CARP organization of potentially ALL of their advantages.
We're all in this together. Act or be acted upon.

I need to think through what it would take to set up ASSP more completely. I welcome feedback.

P.S. - I could not find any generational-specific advocacy groups for young Canadians (LOL or us Gen-X mid-ages - clearly NOT young any more!).
I am disappointed that when I contacted prof James Cote at UWO that I received no response about information regarding this.
In retrospect, I'm glad I am not poised to take my thesis after all.

The only group I can think of is in fact the Espera**o language youth congress of Canada. Well, gotta start somewhere.

I'll get back to you with more.

D.

mcguinty on health care reform

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-proposes-seamless-health-reforms-in-bid-to-cater-to-aging-patients/article2319491/

D - promising. Devil is in the details, though.

Mr. Drummond will recommend that health care be spared from spending reductions. But the level of increases – at roughly 2 per cent a year – will be well below historic levels of 7 per cent.

D - that is some tough love.

-------------------

I wish the Liberals would stop dropping the word 'investing' into every speech. I'm sure some thinktank group decided it was a word that received a positive emotional reaction from the public.
But I don't like feeling like I'm getting my emotional hot buttons punched.

Some things aren't an 'investment' - they're an expense.
Education is an investment. End of life health care is money you'll never see again. It might be justified on humanitarian grounds, but never on economic ones. The word INVESTMENT is the wrong word.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

gen Y and dating. sex relation concepts




http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/relationships/sex/sex-sexuality/sex-without-commitment-doesnt-mean-there-are-no-rules/article2257136/

Friends with benefits, no strings attached, part-time boyfriends, one-night stands, flings, hook-ups, booty calls, last calls. The murky vernacular of campus dating has mystified parents for years, but a new survey might offer some translation.

Researchers from the University of Ottawa have gleaned plenty about the shadowy rules of engagement in casual relationships – no, it’s not okay to sleep over after a booty call – after extensive interviews with 18- to 24-year-old students.

The findings, published in The Canadian Journal of Human Sexuality, delineate four major types of casual sex encounters: the one-night stand, the booty call, the friend with benefits and the “sex” buddy (the actual term is more profane). Each entails very specific rules around initiation, communication, emotional attachment and the inevitable dump, rules that are rarely explicit, yet remain widely understood by teens and twentysomethings.

--------------

D - me, I prefer a slow courtship. Call me old fashioned.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

on Harper and retirement age, OAS




(D - that 2nd chart starts at 2%, not 0, which is a bad chart. And from the government!)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/the-economists/does-harper-really-need-to-raise-the-retirement-age/article2316982/

The Prime Minister explicitly (and correctly) pointed out that the Canada Pension Plan is not in financial difficulty. Instead, the target of reform appears to be Old Age Security.

----------------------

D - ahem. See yesterday's entry. A year from now, the triennial review will say otherwise. Just look at the fund value since the stock market crash. Even allowing for recovery, we're still way shy.
---------------------

On the other hand, Canada is different because, unlike most other countries, our public pension commitments are not a substantial threat to our public finances. The Canada Pension Plan is in long-run balance. Old Age Security currently takes only 2.41 per cent of GDP. Very few OECD countries have lower levels of public pension spending as a share of GDP than Canada. To take the extreme example, Italy spends more than 14 per cent of GDP on public pensions -- up from 10 per cent only a few years ago.

How will spending in Canada grow as the baby boomers age? By 2031 -- at the peak of the baby-boom retirement wave -- the share of GDP spent on Old Age Security will rise to 3.14 per cent, for an increase of 0.73 per cent over today’s level. Now, an increase of 0.73 per cent of GDP cannot be ignored, but neither is it disastrous. To provide some scale, David Dodge and Richard Dion project that spending on health will grow from 12 per cent to 18.7 per cent of GDP by 2031, for an increase of 6.7 percentage points. In the fight for government spending dollars in 2031, health is the elephant and the Old Age Security pension is the mouse.

----------------------

D - true, dat. However, health is a provincial jurisdiction. Whereas OAS - and pensions - are federal. Plus the above commentary ignores the 1-2 punch combo of shrinking workforce (to 2 seniors for every working 1 - plus the youngsters so that's, what 3-4:1 ratio?)and increasing social program costs in combination.
Gen XYZ will be carrying quite a heavy enough load on its shoulders. The goal should be to minimize this, while ensuring retired Boomers the pensions they expect and planned for, plus to ensure no senior citizen poverty. Beyond that, the Boomers can be accused of 'conspicuous consumption' and bleeding their children dry.

D - it also ignores the risk (and I do say RISK) that medicine suddenly allows for great increases in longevity. This would overturn the apple cart and render all the demographic projections incorrect.

---------------------

http://www.121doc.co.uk/news/new-pill-to-increase-life-expectancy-to-150-6549.html

-----------------------

D - clearly a bogus site, but you get the idea. A polypill that contains a cocktail of now-generic health-enhancing drugs that increases lifespan by even a few years would wreak havoc on the financial stabiity of any pension program.

Friday, January 27, 2012

older gens pile on the debt. on CPP,why CARP now

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/older-consumers-pile-on-new-debt/article2315580/

Much of the rise is being driven by the baby boom generation, raising concerns that a demographic group that should be focusing on saving for retirement is instead digging itself faster into a financial hole.

...

Other economists, too, have discovered that it is older Canadians who are piling on debt. In October, a TD report found the 65-plus age group is racking up debt at three times the average pace.

“The traditional cycle was when you were younger, you take on debt, when you’re older, you save more and pay down your debt. And when you hit retirement, you live on your savings,” said Toronto-Dominion chief economist Craig Alexander. Now, as people stay in school longer and retire with debt, we are witnessing “fundamental changes to the life cycle that people have.”

...

The CIBC study finds virtually all of the rise in debt in the past four years comes from people with a high ratio of debt to gross income. “The indebted have piled on still more debt,” it said.

------------------

D - and what do you suppose their reaction will be to retirement?
Break open the piggy bank. Not theirs, though. OURS.

D - and on that note... about the idea of raising retirement age to 67.
First of all, lots of Boomers WANT to keep working.
Second of all, the original ages were different too for these programs.
----------------------------

http://www.thestar.com/article/892566--should-retirement-begin-at-67

Encouraging workers to delay retirement will help relieve the burden on young workers, who face having to help support twice as many seniors past the age of 65 by 2035.

But this concession to fairness is too little and too late for a pair of Ontario political scientists, who point to other developed nations having agreed sooner to gradually raise the age of retirement.

Canada moved sooner to increase Canada Pension Plan contributions to build up a large reserve fund. Unfortunately, that might not be enough.

So, after conferring with the chief actuary for the CPP, Martin Hering of McMaster University and Thomas Klassen of York University are calling for a later retirement age, too.

...

“A retirement age increase leads to a more balanced distribution across generations of the costs of population aging than a contribution rate increase,” they argue.

...

So, true to form, baby boomers who have already had it easier winning the best jobs, best pensions and best homes would be less affected than the younger baby boomers. Also the proposal would be harder on low-income workers, who tend to die sooner than those with higher incomes.

The professor suggest this inequity for low-income workers could be addressed by raising the retirement age for private pension plans, or by changing Old Age Security pensions.

A reduced Old Age Security could be paid at 62, and an unreduced pension at 67, to parallel CPP, they suggest. They do not note, however, that Old Age Security, as now designed, includes a tax-free Guaranteed Income Supplement that would help low-income workers by topping up their CPP benefits and lack of other savings.

Later retirement and an income cap for Old Age Security

------

D - aside - VERY nice primer on pre-CPP Canadian old age programs!

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features/canada-pension-plan-overview-history-and-debates#history

Accordingly, in 1951, the federal government introduced the Old Age Security Act, which provided a universal pension plan to Canadians, referred to as Old Age Security (OAS). Under the new scheme, all Canadians aged 70 or older (and with more liberal residency requirements) were eligible for a taxable benefit of $40 per month. With this new scheme, the means test was dropped, allowing seniors to collect the same benefits regardless of their other income or assets. At the same time, the federal government also introduced the Old Age Assistance Act. It provided a needs-tested (as opposed to means-tested) pension of $40 per month to retired Canadians aged 65 to 69.

...

The CPP, by contrast, was a compulsory social insurance plan, in which employees and employers contribute towards a wage-related retirement pension, and included long-term disability and survivors’ benefits. When it was first introduced, the CPP covered approximately 92 percent of the labour force and was designed to replace 25 percent of the average industrial wage.

D - today, what would that be? Certainly not 2/3 ....

As a social insurance plan based on contributions, the Canada Pension Plan was not designed to pay full retirement benefits until 10 years after its introduction. In the meantime, the federal government amended the Old Age Security Act by introducing a tax-free, income-tested supplement for seniors with little or no other income. Referred to as the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS), the program was intended to be a temporary stop-gap measure to support seniors until the CPP was fully operational. During the 1970s, however, concerns were raised that the OAS and CPP were still insufficient as far as preventing poverty for all seniors. As a result, the GIS has become a full-fledged part of the retirement income system; since then its payout value has increased, and it has been indexed to the cost of living.

Between 1966 and 1986, reforms included introducing a full annual cost of living indexation for benefits;

In 1987, another package of CPP reforms was implemented. It included the introduction of a flexible retirement benefit, allowing retirees to begin collecting their benefits as early as age 60

-------------------------

Review Finds Canada Pension Plan Is Financially Sound
News release
June 27, 2006
"Federal and provincial Ministers of Finance, as joint stewards of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP), today announced the conclusion of their triennial financial review of the CPP. The review confirms that the CPP is on sound financial footing. "Our analysis suggests that the 9.9 per cent contribution rate will be sufficient to sustain the Plan into the foreseeable future," stated the Honourable Jim Flaherty, Minister of Finance. "We have therefore agreed that the contribution rate will remain unchanged." By providing over 3 million retired Canadians with maximum benefits of up to $844 per month, the CPP represents a key pillar of Canada’s retirement income system. With assets projected to grow to $250 billion in the next 10 years, the Plan has been recognized internationally as an affordable model for securing adequate retirement income in the face of population aging and economic change."

-------------

D - now here is where things get interesing. Sure, we do hafta wait for the next Triennial Financial Review in 2012ish. But what do the fund size projections suggest?

http://www.hrsdc.gc.ca/eng/oas-cpp/reports/2010/page07.shtml

As at March 31, 2010, total CPPIB net assets were valued at $127.7 billion. These net assets are composed of contributions and investment income that have accumulated since the CPP’s inception in 1966, minus benefit and administrative expenditures over the same period.

The CPPIB has $127.7 billion in net assets.
D - Hmm, this seems a far cry from $250 billion, with only um 4-5 years left to meet that goal. I'm gonna say the stock market is not gonna suddenly start to shine again any time soon.

http://www.cppib.ca/Results/Financial_Highlights/

Yup. Not looking too good. NOW does the sudden CARP push for CPP pension benefits hike make sense? You guessed it- they gotta do that NOW, or the next review will indicate just how severely the fund has been damaged. After all, what do they care? The present rules allow a .2%/year increase easily. So GenXYZ can absorb the costs with a gradual CPP deduction increase of 1%/5 years without too much fuss.
Yup, that pretty chart says what you think it does.
2012: 152.3 BILLION. Almost 100 billions shy of what the cheery last meeting complacently expected.
I hope you are, at this moment, finding it difficult to feel warm thoughts about CARP. That really is the point.

------------------------

http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/680409

In fact, the amateur investor could have done better by holding a higher percentage of Canadian stocks.

The CPP fund has shifted more toward foreign investments for long-term strategic reasons.

It had only 14.4 per cent of its assets invested in Canadian stocks at the end of June, down from 23.6 per cent a year earlier. It had 43.1 per cent invested in foreign stocks, 32.7 per cent in bonds and 9.8 per cent in real estate and infrastructure.

...

The health of the plans, endorsed recently by provincial finance ministers and the official actuary, depends mainly on employment levels and the number of years we live.

---------------

D - gee, sure a good thing we did that (sarcasm)...

------------------------
http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/consultations/pension/ris.html

Very nice primer.

Pillar 2: Canada/Quebec Pension Plan
CPP or QPP (in Quebec). The CPP and QPP are mandatory pension programs for the employed and self-employed, and are intended to replace 25 per cent of career average pensionable earnings.

D - hmm, is that so? I gotta run down those #s again...

on senior poverty

http://www.seniorsdaily.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1819&Itemid=35

We’re number two, and that’s really good. In terms of poverty rates for the elderly, we are second only to the Netherlands, which has the lowest rate. But we can’t rest on our laurels.

According to a recent release, the Conference Board of Canada has found that 5.9 per cent of Canadian seniors are poor, compared to two per cent in the Netherlands. That is using a definition of poverty as having defining a disposable income less than half that of the national median income.

Canada’s poverty rate for seniors has fallen substantially from 1971, when it stood at 36.9 per cent. This important drop can be explained in part by the introduction of the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans and in part by the increasing availability of job-linked pensions.

However, the rate has risen since the mid-nineties, when it stood at 2.9 per cent.

While the Conference Board release does not discuss the reasons for the jump in the Canadian rate, a discussion about possible explanations is in order, especially as they have serious implications for the future. But first we need to say a few words about the definition of poverty.

The definition of poverty used is comparative, half of the mean. The mean is the point with half the population above and half below.

This kind of definition is subject to the criticism that if everyone’s real income doubled, the poverty rate would remain unchanged, in spite of the fact that everyone would be much better off. Realistically, such a change has not occurred and is not occurring.

------------------

D - not a good web site. It does not list anywhere what TIME this article is for. Meaning it ends up in the second-rate data dustbin online, cluttering up the discussion for years.

D - now let's compare to what CARP has to say.

-------------------

http://www.carp.ca/2010/11/26/number-of-seniors-living-in-poverty-soars-nearly-25/

The number of seniors living in poverty spiked at the beginning of the financial meltdown, reversing a decades-long trend and threatening one of Canada’s most important social policy successes.

The number of seniors living below the low-income cutoff, Statistics Canada’s basic measure of poverty, jumped nearly 25 per cent between 2007 and 2008, to 250,000 from 204,000, according to figures released on Wednesday by Campaign 2000. It’s the largest increase among any group, and as the first cohort of baby boomers turns 65 next year, could place increased pressure on families supporting elderly parents.

Economists say women make up as much as 80 per cent of the increase in seniors poverty.

----------------

D - notice anything? CARP picked the LICO and not median measure. I sure wonder what the other measure would look like instead?

D - if you look at CARP's position, it only incidentally affects poor seniors. It resembles Reagan's 'trickle down theory' of economics, in that most of the loaf of bread goes to the fat-cat (entire) middle class (even lower upper class), but if a few crumbs fall off the table to the actually poor seniors, well they guess that is OK.

D - all of the seniors in poverty can be pulled out of poverty RIGHT NOW, and with no additional funding required for OAS. All that is required is to re-align OAS for its original purported mission - to help poor seniors.
Meaning that CARP has NO interest in doing so.
They are a lobby group for affluent 50-plus-agers. I doubt many truly poor seniors could use all those luxury perk discounts their membership in CARP offers.

D - Harper has a chance to do away with senior poverty at this critical moment. Meanwhile, let's contrast his position with the NDP and Liberals.

-----------------------

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/harpers-retirement-agenda-set-to-open-up-the-battle-lines/article2317234/

The most politically challenging will be his effort to put Canada’s “retirement income system” on a sustainable footing. Given that he made clear he was not talking about the Canada Pension Plan, that leaves Old Age Security – an income stream for Canadians 65 and over.

The cost of the program is poised to soar as the baby boom generation retires, which is starting now. Previous governments saw this coming, but ultimately backed down from plans to tackle the problem.

When Tory Prime Minister Brian Mulroney partially de-indexed the program from inflation in his 1985 budget, he was famously accosted by then-63-year-old protestor Solange Denis, who fumed “You lied to us.” She then summed up Mr. Mulroney’s political future as “goodbye Charlie Brown.” A week later, Mr. Mulroney reversed the decision, which he called “a mistake.”

(D - Mulroney should have renewed the emphasis on poor seniors. He should not have tried to de-index OAS from inflation, which would hurt poor seniors.)

-------------------------------------

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/opposition-fire-back-against-harper-threats-to-pension-system/article2316277/

Peter Julian, the official opposition finance critic, also characterized the Prime Minister’s words as “ominous.” Liberal finance critic, Scott Brison, meanwhile vowed that his party will “fight every step of the way” any cutbacks to benefits for low income seniors.

(D - wanna bet the Liberals will fight even harder for middle-to-upper class seniors?)

(PM Harper speaking after this.)
But, he added, “For those elements of the system that are not funded, we will make the changes necessary to ensure sustainability for the next generation while not affecting current recipients.”

---------------------

D - Harper is not willing to contest affluent seniors. Meaning this will only impact those who are not yet of retirement age, or retired. Meaning a swipe at the "Gen-X 'lite'" late Boomers and then GenXYZ.
I HOPE this means he will exempt pre-Boomers that have already based their finances on certain assumptions, and may be unable to adjust them now. I hope. But I FEAR he would be willing to exempt all the Boomers ahead of time too.

-----------------------

“Now, he’s threatening ... seems to be trying to precondition us to cuts to the OAS, which is there to help the lowest income Canadians,” charged Mr. Brison. “At a time when other global leaders at Davos are addressing income inequality not only is Harper ignoring it he’s threatening to make it worse.”
----------------------

D - actually, Brison, if Harper rejigged OAS to target poor seniors this would qualify as just that: addressing income inequality.
Making you, Brison, just another 'talking head' in politics.
Let's give Harper a chance and see where this goes.

D - again, a program that is 'for the poor' BUT has a clawback that starts/ ends at c. $70-110,000 respectively is a program in need of reform.
I bet if we crunch the #s, we could
a) cut out upper middle class seniors,
b) raise all the lower class seniors out of poverty
c) all without adding a single cent of funding.
In fact, why don't we pocket the difference and use it to pay down the debt. After all, once the Boomers have all retired (in 15 years), then we'll lose revenue as increase social program spending costs. The Boomers did not set aside a gov't trust fund to handle this - this could be their apology to their juniors.

Harper to crack down on OAS?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ottawa-on-track-to-beat-deficit-target/article2317307/

In separate speeches Thursday, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Treasury Board President Tony Clement struck a harsh note of austerity about the government's future plans.

Mr. Harper stressed his government's desires to slash spending with cuts to Canada's pension system, particularly the Old Age Security benefits and noted he has already moved to reduce growth in health-care financing. Mr. Clement said the government is looking to achieve even more savings from cuts to the public service, to as much as $8-billion from the previously announced $4-billion.

The government's plans are aimed at reining in costs for in preparation for the demographic squeeze down the road, when baby boomers move from taxpayers to receivers of social services.

------------

D - and if he took my advice from past blogs, then the truly poor retirees and old folks would be much better off, only at the expense of the greedy upper-middle class and lower-upper-class ones!!!

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Cdn. Boomers "punch drunk" spenders


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/boomers-punch-drunk-on-household-debt/article2315580/

It finds that the most heavily-indebted are responsible for all of the rise in debt since 2007, and that those who should be saving for retirement and building assets are moving fastest into a financial hole.

“While a crisis does not appear imminent, there are cracks emerging in the financial foundation of Canadians that are likely to impair spending growth ahead,” says the report, titled “Punch Drunk”, by CIBC economists Avery Shenfeld and Benjamin Tal.

Ballooning household debt has made headlines in recent months, and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has warned it is the No. 1 domestic risk to Canada's economy.

-----------------------

D - so if interest rates increase during a recovery to offset inflation, and these households go bankrupt, it can retard the recovery. We will truly have a 'lost decade'.

---------------

Other economists, too, have flagged that it is older Canadians who are piling on debt. In October, a TD report found the 65-plus age group are racking up debt at three times the average pace.

----------------

D - and they are not saving enough to maintain their lifestyle.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

cost of dying, by cause in Canada

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/end-of-life/how-much-does-dying-cost-canadians/article2252845/

Almost 70 per cent of people die in the hospital, including some in high-tech intensive-care beds, which cost about $1-million a year to operate. Many patients fail to complete advance directives or communicate preferences to their families, meaning they could be subject to costly, invasive treatments they did not actually want.

...

Prof. Fassbender’s research shows it costs the health-care system about $39,947 to treat a patient with organ failure near the end of life; $36,652 for a terminal illness; and $31,881 for frailty. Sudden death is the least costly at $10,223.

...

Some suggest that by filling out advance directives, it can help ensure that patients receive treatments they want at end of life. The Royal Society of Canada’s report on end-of-life decisions earlier this month pointed out the need for people to express their wishes.

Hugh Walker, adjunct professor of health economics at Queen’s University medical school, who did studies on costs of care for dying cancer patients, knows this issue well, which is why he has an advance directive.

“Lots of people, my wife and I included, have signed ‘do not resuscitate’ or ‘do no heroic intervention’ orders,” said Dr. Walker, who at 73, still works. “… We don’t want to live our lives in a long-term setting and we didn’t want the other one to have a long life of disability.”

And yet, end-of-life wishes and the costs of care associated with it remain taboo topics in Canadian health care.

--------------------

D - clearly, lowering death by cancer and dementia involve long-term policies outside of health care proper. Nutrition for cancer, and fostering a culture of life-long learning for dementia.

http://leas.ca/Toxins-in-Household-Products.htm

Product
Silica Trisodium
nitrilotriacetate Methylene
chloride Naphthelene Ethoxylated
nonyl-phenol 2-butoxyethanol Toluene Xylene

D - yet there are known hazardous chemicals in Canadian households still. The European precautionary principle would seem more wise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle

The precautionary principle or precautionary approach states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the action.

D - my blog on dementia covers the lifestyle changes required to avoid dying from the 'top 10' ways to die. The key lesson is to realize that nobody wants to die from the slowest, most painful, and most ultimately terminal ways to go - dementia and cancer. Morbid as it sounds, our gov't policy should be to enhance the likelihood of a 'good death' - as compared to those 2 ways. Both the patient and the public purse are in agreement on this.

D - my additional proposal in the short term is this: require signing a check-box of 'living will' options when either a
1) driver license or
2) OHIP (health) card
gets renewed. In this fashion, the citizen and patient is encouraged -enabled - to choose for themselves so that their families do not over-ride their end-of-life treatment choices at great expense.
This policy would have a nearly immediate impact on health care costs, and the results would be visible even in this political term.

Harper still will pay +6% per year until c. 2014. After that the federal transfer will typically decrease, certainly compared to increasing costs to treat ageing Boomers. Ontario is also worse off with the new formula since the rapid rate of exporting raw commodities in the West has raised our currency, gutted our manufacturing sector, and left us with an ageing population.

Ontario faces a credit rating downgrade. EVERY option needs to be on the table. This 1 is a no-brainer, and avoids the 'third rail' issue of euthanasia and assisted suicide. The patients simply chooses for themselves.

degree and ethnicity (ethnic name) and school

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/frances-woolley/do-employers-care-about-a-universitys-reputation/article2313152/

One possible take-away from this finding is that a person with an English-sounding name can choose any undergraduate institution and do just fine. The fictitious resumes in the study, however, also listed four to six years of high quality, relevant, work experience. My alternative take-away is that employers focus on the last thing on a person’s resume, and place more weight on a person’s most recent work experience than his undergraduate education.

For resumes submitted under non-European names, such as Maya Kumar and Ali Saeed, the choice of university seems to matter more. Resumes listing degrees from research intensive universities such as University of Waterloo and Queen’s were significantly more likely to generate call-backs than degrees from more teaching-oriented institutions. Interestingly, resumes listing a degree from University of Waterloo, Queen’s and University of Toronto had similar call-back rates whether they were submitted under an English-sounding name or a non-European one.

------------------

D - some decent universities will not allow you to take your grad studies at the same place as your undergrad. Ergo, one should not enter one's 'dream school' directly from high school if one plans to pursue grad studies.

Friday, January 20, 2012

a comparison of provincial U funding - grant vs loan



http://trusu.ca/section/252

D - expect more pressure on education funding. Health care will devour an increasing amount of the budget.
We won't be seeing a 6%/year decade deal from the Harper gov't.
We've done little to plan for this increase in health care costs, even as tax revenue decreases as Boomers retire.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

how to eke out more per-student funding


Defund the Catholic school system. At least here in Ontario.

Then Ontario could be just a bit above-average, instead of middle of the pack.
By halving the lobby group's claims, I figure that'd save c. $100M /yr in Ontario.
In case you didn't notice, we are in a funding crunch.

We are also on the receiving end of a United Nations reprimand for favouring Catholics over all other denominations and religions.

nurses, generation and retention factors

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-01/w-rsi011712.php

D - we in Canada are facing a health funding crunch. Off-loading some doctor work to nurses is a no-brainer. But then we need to have those nurses still around...

Note the distinct generational differences. Not sure if this is a function of generational perspectives, or just an aspect of shifting age values.

Key findings of the survey include:

Six independent variables had an important influence on the nurses' intentions to continue nursing and between them these accounted for 21% of the variations in these intentions.
Being committed to healing and nursing was the only independent variable identified in the youngest Generation Y age group.
Two independent variables were identified in the Generation X nurses: being committed to healing and nursing and the quality of their relationship with their supervisor.
Five independent variables were identified in the oldest Baby Boomer group: being committed to healing and nursing, work-family conflict, being allowed to decide how and when to carry out tasks, how well they got on with colleagues and the importance of working.
The only factor tested that did not prove a significant influence in any of the age groups was flexible working arrangements.

---------------------------------

D - Harper is capping health care transfers, and the provinces are whining.
They say Harper ignored the increasing cost of the aged.

Elders increase in health care costs 2-3x by 65-85x.

D - well, we DID get a break that we could have used to buttress against the coming 'age epidemic'. But we squandered it, like the grasshopper and not the ant in Aesop's fable.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/01/16/pol-premiers-monday.html

D - 6% to 2016-17. Then not so much, likely.

We could have invested that in more assisted living, more permanent care facilities- anything to reduce the clogging up of critical care beds.
More all-night clinic to relive the strain on emergency admittance.
Anything.

We didn't.

And now we get what we deserve for this lack of discipline.

Monday, January 16, 2012

what is a U degree worth, anyway? BC study.

A_NEW_WORLD_LANGUAGE

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 11, 2012

what is a U degree worth, anyway? BC study.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/is-a-university-degree-still-key-to-finding-a-good-job/article2297501/

But I completely disagree with those that suggest university education as a panacea for labour market challenges. I have heard economists infer that if we could flip a switch and transform people from high school graduates to university graduates it would dramatically improve their income and employment outcomes.

The reality is more nuanced.

Take the example of British Columbia. According to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, from 2000 to 2010 the province saw a very impressive 79 per cent increase in the number of adults with a university degree. The overall provincial population grew by 16 per cent in the same period.

The percentage of adults with a university degree in British Columbia grew 40 per cent faster than the country as a whole. There were 257,000 more people with a university degree in 2010 compared to 2000.

Despite this rapid increase in university educated people in B.C., the average weekly wage for all workers increased by the second slowest rate among the 10 provinces in Canada over the same period.

Conversely, the provinces of Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador...

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D - well, you get the idea.
My objection U stats is that there is money to be made. All those students offering their tuition fees (and forget all the mandatory fees - should be tallied in the base line amount! Just like air plane tickets...) means there is a profit motive. The educational institutions have a vested interest in fleecing the students. And fleece they do. Here are a coupla common examples of misleading advertising by post- secondary educational institutions that I've seen in K-W region this past decade:

1) a local college talking about the successful placement rate for a certain diploma program. First of all, with a 90% washout rate by graduatoin, this means there is only a 10% chance that a student will be in this elect. Furthermore, including a sales job at, say, Futureshop as 'working in the computer industry' is misleading.

2) a local university talking about the income benefits of a degree compared to not having one. First of all, you need to adjust for those years not in the workplace. And don't think that you will automatically take 4 years to get a 4 year degree! I tried to take statsII as early as possible at Windsor, but could never get into it early. Ergo, one fail later and I would need to stay and entire extra year in order to graduate with a degree of 4 instead of 3 years. You see how that went...
Also, the draconian terms on student loan repayment need to be considered. You can't kick that debt if times are tough when you graduate for SEVEN years (FIVE with special circumstances). There is the cost of the debt, plus the interest on it. Graduating right now would involve a double-edged sword scenario. The very low interest rates mean you can rapidly pay down the debt's principal with a decent job. However, the nasty recession means finding that job is highly problematic.

D - I'm not sure why the gov't is not required to collect and publish such stats in detail and in an accessible format and location. Ontario is a patchwork of dozen(s) of entities when it comes to access to information requests. Contrast this with some states that have a single website location for such things. Transparency is required!
Are you listening, Harper and McGuinty?

D.
POSTED BY DINO SNIDER AT 9:00 AM 0 COMMENTS
what is a U degree worth, anyway? BC study.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/is-a-university-degree-still-key-to-finding-a-good-job/article2297501/
PO

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

harper's age credit now causing deficit problems


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/flahertys-tax-credits-cost-ottawa-billions/article2296695/

Some of the changes that received little attention at the time are having a growing impact on federal revenues, the report shows.

For instance, two Conservative top-ups to the Age Credit have increased the annual cost of the deduction by 25 per cent, from $1.8-billion in 2006 to $2.26-billion in 2011. The tax credit for seniors used to apply to incomes of $57,377 or less. Now it can be claimed by seniors with incomes of up to $76,541.

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D - once again, this is a policy that is nominally anti-poverty. However it is primarily used by the middle class. A policy that the middle-class can use is only slightly more progressive than a universal one that exempts nobody.
For example, the LICO line - the 'relative poverty' line- is roughly $14,000 for a single person. I would not suggest trying to live in Toronto on that.
The Cdn. national average income is c. $25-30,000, depending on whether you include part-time jobs with full-time ones.
A progressive policy instead could have done the following:
1) Increase the deduction to 25% but
2) only for HALF the usual cap, so 76,541/2 so um c. $38,000.
Notice even this policy includes middle-middle class.
A very progressive policy would be the introduce income-tax bracket style tiers.
E.g.
1) 10% to $76, 541,
2) 20% to $38, 000, and
3) 30% to $17,000, which approximates the LICO Low Income Cutoff Line.
Watch CARP carefully. They blur the line between impoverished, poor and middle class seniors. The policy alternative above that I have proposed is, in theory, an anti-poverty one. But the NDP likes to generous with everyone - Merry Christmas, ho ho ho!
But that isn't socialist. It is just plain fiscally irresponsible.
The policy I have outlined would be pretty much revenue-neutral and would disproportionately benefit those few remaining impoverished seniors in Canada.
My heart does go out to them. I was impoverished for most of my young adulthood. But it is one thing for a young fit guy and quite another for somebody at the other end - the end of the line. A little extra compassion can be justified then.

-------------------
CARP diem! Seize that CARP! <:

D - I received a colourful flyer in my Globe and Mail weekend edition last week.
It advertised the Zoomer mag that CARP issues.
First of all, I'm pretty sure that vibrant and dynamic are synonyms.
There is a pitch for a free copy of Zoomer mag, and a reduced CARP membership fee with a subscription. I'm sure the converse is also true.
Inside there are three references to hot retiree sex - "great sex at any age", "how to get your sex life back on track" and "turn back the clock". One might assume they are lobbying to have Viagra included in the drug plans of provinces. After all, being Boomers, they are ENTITLED - period.

D - plus apparently their editors don't understand the difference between single and double quotation marks and their usage. Perhaps somebody ought to purchase them a copy of "Eats, Shoot and Leaves". (Yes, I know that period ought to be inside the second quotation mark. I don't like it there. Style...)
D - I'm really glad to hear they are concerned about age discrimination. Well, at least for retirees.

http://raisethehammer.org/article/609/stay_in_your_lane (see image chart)

D - And what do we see in this chart? That 20 and 75 year-old drivers are at about the same risk for car accidents. BUT. One of those groups can rent a car and one cannot. I really need some youth group and an ambitious lawyer to challenge the car rental companies on that one.
So, as you can see, CARP is not 'against (age-related) discrimination. They are against discrimination if the subject is OLD. That means that CARP is age-ist. They are ageists. (Agist?) Etymology, they are ageists espousing ageisms. Etymologically there are oldists espousing oldism. Oldist: "FOR old". And nobody else.
Not anti-poverty. And not more broadly (and ethically) anti-ageism. Oldist.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

the "long goodbye". Alzheimers and health care

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/new-health/health-news/canadians-missing-out-on-early-alzheimers-diagnosis-study-finds/article2290607/

Mary Schulz, national education director of the Alzheimer Society, said that early diagnosis is helpful on several levels. Drugs can slow symptoms of the degenerative brain illness, although they don’t work for everyone. More importantly, people with Alzheimer’s and their families can plan for future care – financially, legally and practically.

Yet a new survey shows that many Canadians who experience symptoms like memory loss, disorientation and personality changes – typical warning signs of dementia – wait a long time before seeking medical help.

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D - half waited a year, and a few even waited 2 years.

D - the first time I was consciously exposed to Alzheimers was in a West Wing episode called the Long Goodbye.

Plot

C. J. Cregg goes home to Dayton—and finds herself in the middle of an achingly sad family crisis—in this poignant change-of-pace episode. She's making the trip to speak at her 20th high-school reunion, but when she arrives at her father's house, she discovers that his new wife (her old English teacher) has left him. That is troublesome enough, but the fact that her father has Alzheimer's makes it almost unbearably heartbreaking. C.J. does find a soulmate at Dayton's airport, though, a classmate named Marco, who was a punk rocker in high school and now repairs watches.

http://www.squidoo.com/the-long-goodbye

D - why it is called The Long Goodbye:

Alzheimer's is truly "The Long Goodbye". You watch your loved one slip away a little more each day until there is finally nothing left of the person you spent so many years with, whether it was a spouse or parent. You are forced to be a witness to the deterioration of an intelligent and vital human being. By the end, and yes, Alzheimer's is a terminal disease, the person you knew has long since ceased to exist. Alzheimer's Disease is a cruel insult to anyone who suffers its indignity, leaving many "victims" almost lifeless, yet unable to die with the dignity and peace they deserve. As the disease progresses it is important to treasure every connection that you still can spark, because even when the disease progresses to the point where the patient can't speak, or even recognize you, they can still feel your love.

D - nobody wants to go out that way. From what I've read, one can maintain brain fitness by using that brain. Cross-word puzzles. Learn a musical instrument. Pick up a new language. (I learn a language a year for kicks. And can, self-taught, play Coldplay "The Scientist" now.)
Now I'd like to add a caveat now. I hope you are sitting down. You are gonna die. In fact, we are all gonna die. Of something. The trick is to rig the odds so you die of something more instead of less palatable. A nice, fast, painless death. Or at least quick - dying with your boots on, so to speak. Or quietly, in bed.

Like the Chris Rock lyrics to "No Sex in the Champagne Room" go:
Here's a horoscope for everyone:
Aquarius: You're gonna die
Capricorn: You're gonna die
Gemini: You're gonna die TWICE
Leo: You're gonna die
Scorpio: You're gonna die f****g.

D - Dementia and associated conditions tie up both intensive care beds and permanent retirement facility spots. And nobody, neither that old person (typically) or the taxpayer who funds a (poorly laid out) health care system wants that.
So, with these cold calculations, we juggle the odds. Just live past cancer long enough, and likely a cardiovascular failure will eventually get you. The trick is to make sure it's a heart attack and not your brain dribbling out your ears.
Check out sciencedaily - the ONLY science site for me - it is sooo good. Sure, old folks forget where they put their keys and fish for a name longer. But they can maintain high level functioning (particularly with planning) and have a # of effective coping strategies.
So nobody wants to die (after an excruciatingly slow and inexorable mental decline) of dementia or Alzheimers. BTW, fast-onset dementia is about as lethal as breaking a hip for old folks. Still takes years, though.

So what to do? Juggle the odds. Take my above advice to stave off dementia. Don't wait once you manifest symptoms -they'll only get worse, and faster, without medication.
Regarding cancer (another unpleasant- and very expensive way to go), well, we ALL already know. Fruits 'n vegis. Don't smoke. Drink moderately (I use targeted anti-oxidants for the liver.) Watch those sun burns and funny looking moles. All strictly duh-stupid stuff that you gotta do NOW to plan for LATER. Don't say I didn't tell you so.

As an aside, at 40 you should get tested for glaucoma if you drive. It's easy to treat early on, and can stealthily reduce your peripheral vision, impairing your driving.

To prevent Alzheimers (other than genetic-based early onset form):
Maintaining a healthy heart and avoiding high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and high cholesterol can decrease the risk of Alzheimer’s. Watch your weight, avoid tobacco and excess alcohol, stay socially connected, and exercise both your body and mind.

D - all that stuff you've been ignoring when your doctor says it. Basically, a lifestyle that evades obesity and metabolic syndrome.

WHO
The World Health Organization criteria (1999) require presence of one of:
Diabetes mellitus,
Impaired glucose tolerance,
Impaired fasting glucose or
Insulin resistance;
AND two of the following:
Blood pressure: ≥ 140/90 mmHg
Dyslipidemia: triglycerides (TG): ≥ 1.695 mmol/L and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ≤ 0.9 mmol/L (male), ≤ 1.0 mmol/L (female)
Central obesity: waist:hip ratio > 0.90 (male); > 0.85 (female), or body mass index > 30 kg/m2
Microalbuminuria: urinary albumin excretion ratio ≥ 20 µg/min or albumin:creatinine ratio ≥ 30 mg/g

http://helpguide.org/elder/alzheimers_disease_symptoms_stages.htm

D - here is a useful 'senior moment' vs 'dementia symptom' chart.

D - well that is about all you need to know about ageing well. Now onto...
GOVERNMENT POLICY. Morbid stuff, but gov't should be tailoring food and culture policy to result in a "good death" and not a very slow unpleasant and EXPENSIVE 1.
This includes a policy of cultural engagement and increasing the value of lifelong learning - and not just formal education either.
Our federal gov's seems incapable of reining in the food industry. Take their abject failure on salt reduction.
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/fn-an/nutrition/sodium/strateg/index-eng.php
Yup- a non-binding 'consensual' industry initiative. I've seen industry use too many such moves to just hedge for time, with no intention of meaningful change.


http://www.canadaandtheworld.com/highsaltcontent.html

Those who eat a bowl of Kellogg’s All Bran for breakfast may think they are doing something that’s good for their body. In the United States that might be true; in Canada, not so much.
According to World Action on Salt and Health (WASH) the All Bran cereal “contains 2.15g of salt per 100g in Canada, but only 0.65g of salt per 100g just over the border in the United States, less than a third of the Canadian level.”

D- we are laying the foundation for a continuing epidemic of strokes.

http://www.heartandstroke.com/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=ikIQLcMWJtE&b=3485819&ct=11514719

It is estimated that one in seven deaths from stroke and one in 11 deaths from coronary heart disease could be prevented if Canadians reduced their sodium intake by 1,840 mg per day (roughly ¾ tsp).[i]
On average, Canadians consume too much sodium. Our levels well exceed what is recommended by international agencies and Health Canada. The average Canadian consumes about 3,400 mg of sodium a day, the vast majority of which is contained in processed foods.

D - not to mention, diabetes.

http://www.ices.on.ca/webpage.cfm?site_id=1&org_id=117&morg_id=0&gsec_id=3086&item_id=4085&utility_link_id=3086

“Given this linear growth in the prevalence of diabetes, more than ten per cent of the adult population of Ontario will be diagnosed with diabetes before 2010,” said Dr. Lipscombe.
“If similar trends are occurring throughout the developed world, then the magnitude of the emerging diabetes epidemic is far greater than we anticipated.”

D - so why don't we have a 'food sin tax'? Here's a wacky idea. Base the following on one portion size- 1 meal serving - or 1 snack - with actual standards about what constitutes a portion size. (I recall comparing 2 salad dressings - the no-name had HALF the suggested portion size...). Let's assume most folks eat 3 meals of 1 serving apiece per day. So 100% of your daily limit distributed over 3 meals is 33% per meal. Any indicator of salt, sugar or saturated fat that exceeds 33% results in a 1 cent 'food sin tax'. Take, for example, the cheap no-name oriental noodles I like to warm up at work. The daily sodium is 43%. Ergo, a 10 cent sin tax. Suddenly these 'cheap' junky meals begin to reflect the very real health care costs incurred by them. Though that same packet suggests it contains TWO servings. I was shocked to realize I had just eaten 86% of my daily sodium in the side dish to my sandwich! Eek.

D - my bro-in-law suggested a carrot v.s. stick approach. At your annual doctor medical checkup, if you are in your BMI, you get a $1000 tax break. After all, the economics still work out for gov't spending. I quite like this too, though it it ignores that there are unhealthy thin and healthy fat people.
Though I am plenty concerned about what I've referred to as "the fat-fu**-ification of society". For the record, I'm 5' 10", 175 pounds and can bang out 50 perfect pushups, as well as run across town if I felt so inclined. At age 40.