Mr. Drummond’s report for the Ontario government will not be released until early next year. But he says the government won’t meet its commitment to erase the province’s deficit by 2018 unless it caps annual growth in spending on health care, education and other programs at 1 per cent for the next six years. The province is facing a projected deficit of $16-billion this year.
Reducing spending will not be easy. Canadians spent $192-billion on health care in 2010, accounting for just under 12 per cent of the country’s economic output or GDP, the report says. In Ontario alone, government spending on health care has climbed an average of 7.6 per cent a year over the past decade.
The grim reality is that provincial revenues will not grow fast enough to offset rising health-care costs, the report says. The report is the latest foray into public policy by Mr. Drummond, one of Canada’s most influential advisers to governments. In a report last year, he warned that left unchecked, health-care costs are set to reach between 70 to 80 per cent of total program spending by 2030, up from just over 40 per cent today.
In the earlier report, Mr. Drummond and TD Bank economist Derek Burleton proposed that the provinces bill affluent seniors for their drugs and pay doctors based on the quality and cost-effectiveness of their care.
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